Even though I still find his arrogance astounding, it's closer than you think.
A group of much smarter guys than us over at Football Outsiders have posted a probability calculator. You can enter your own probabilities and it will determine whether your estimates favor Belichick going for the fourth-and-2 or the other option: punting and gaining 40 yards of field position.
at 1:16 PM
Posted by Jonny K. Woo